The Micro IceAge Started 2004
Up until two weeks ago I was thinking we are coming into a grand solar minimum. But I'm reconsidering that after rereading some articles by Javier, Bob Weber's posts, and this post on Breitbart (and other non- MsM sites), I now believe we entered a 'Micro- IceAge' in 2004 when Bob Weber's fig.10 showed a drop in 10.7 cm solar flux, leading to ocean cooling. I'm calling this a 'Micro' because I don't expect it to last more than solar cycle 24, 25, and 26. Then there will be maybe 7 years to transition back to normal global temperatures; say by 2050.
This is an excerpt from an essay allegedly by James Delingpole posted on Breitbart ...
The 2016-18 Big Chill was composed of two Little Chills, the biggest five month drop ever (February to June 2016) and the fourth biggest (February to June 2017). A similar event from February to June 2018 would bring global average temperatures below the 1980s average. February 2018 was colder than February 1998.
From February 2016 to February 2018 (the latest month available) global average temperatures dropped 0.56°C. You have to go back to 1982-84 for the next biggest two-year drop, 0.47°C—also during the global warming era. All the data in this essay come from GISTEMP Team, 2018: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP). NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (dataset accessed 2018-04-11)
What the mainstream media is not highlighting is this last winter was the coldest in 40 years in many countries in the northern hemisphere. North Eastern European countries on the Atlantic coast reported last summer was the coldest in 40 Years also.
Also this spring has been cold and longer than usual which will affect the growing season.
During the Little Ice Age the temperature dropped about half a degree globally. As you can see from the Delingpole essay, it has dropped by 0.56 degrees already.
This is what we can expect starting from last Dec; some winters extremely cold, some wet cool springs to kill crops, some cold summers, and more frequent and severe storms. The storminess index went from 6.5 to 14 during the LIA. This slide into cold is showing up in German weather station records where the last 30 yrs of winter (DJF) are trending -19 dgC per 1000 yrs, much faster than the slow decline to normal glacials.
I expect in the next ten years one billion will actually starve due to crop failures*, and one billion will be eaten by stronger omnivores; feral dogs, cats, and ... humans.
As the legal beagles like to say, 'Time is of the essence,' so the sooner you act, the better your chances of survival.
Sandy, Minister of Future
*NB- the WHO reports 800 mln suffer from hunger, 10 mln die from starvation each yr, 60 mln die from disease each yr.
So now thats 70 mln / yr, plus more food stress, weakening immune system, more disease, amplified by cold climate / storm stress, could easily be 100 mln /yr ... Thats 1 Bln / 10 yrs.
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@Allan Macrae- Greetings from the Big Mango (BKK). Here's my guesstimate ...
Q: Will the six years from 1Jan2018 to 1Jan2024 be colder or warmer than the previous 6 year period, and by how much in degrees C, on average? Why?
A: My guess is UAH LT will be 1.0 to 1.5 dg net cooler, primarily because of deep cold ocean upwelling with help from low solar activity.
Q: Will the twelve years from 1Jan2018 to 1Jan2030 be colder or warmer than the previous 12 year period, and by how much in degrees C, on average? Why?
A: My guess is UAH LT will 1.5 to 2.5 dgC net cooler, primarily because of deep cold ocean upwelling with help from low solar activity. ( and die-off of hot air spewing politicians and warmist alarmists, heh)
NB- the deep ocean is about 1.5 C. When this water surfaces and the air warms it up, for every 1 degree rise of SST the air temp will drop 4 C.
Sandy, Minister of Future
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While the govt scientists have been pushing the Church of Awful Global Warming and how to spend carbon tax credits, we have been sliding into a new little ice age, and are missing a chance to study it.
I have posted the following alert to several sites and to a US senator. Links to the 18 articles i read are available by request in comments. Most from Climate,etc, and WUWT.
NOAA, NASA, and the IPCC have failed humanity, and we're all in for a nasty surprise ... Abrupt Climate Change. This is a summary and warning i put together:
The MsM and warmist alarmists are wrong. It is the heighth of hubris and arrogance to think humans, in the space of 150 years, can change thermal cycles that are thousands of years long and have existed for millenia. The thermal mass of the land and oceans is enormous. The temperature of deep, still, parts of the ocean have barely risen one degree in 22,000 years, the last glacial max.
My reading of the climate tea leaves says we're already past the interglacial plateau of relatively stable climate.
For the last three thousand years, Since 1000 BC, the end of the Minoan Warm Period, the global temperature trend has been -0.5 to -0.7 dgC per 1000 yrs, projecting full glacial of 8 dgC in another 7,000 yrs. Another clue, the obliquity dropped below 23.5 degrees around 1300 AD, the onset of the Wolf Minimum. Now the glacial cold lurking in the deep ocean, held in check by obliquity for 10,000 years, has been set free, ending the Holocene Interglacial. We are in the transition zone to glacial cold, expect Finoscandian ice sheets to start in 2000 yrs.
However, the solar output has been declining since 1986 and this accelerated in 2009 with solar cycle 24, the lowest in over 100 yrs. Cycle 25 will also be low and the beginning of a Grand Solar Minimum, now named the Eddy Minimum. Expect a Little Ice Age lasting 40 yrs, with some winters extremely cold, some wet cool springs to kill crops, some cold summers, and more frequent and severe storms. The storminess index went from 6.5 to 14 during the LIA. This slide into cold is showing up in German weather station records where the last 30 yrs of winter (DJF) are trending -19 dgC per 1000 yrs, much faster than the slow decline to normal glacials.
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