Holocene Over

Holocene   Interglacial   Warm   Over

Greetings from the Big Mango (BKK).  My reading of the climate tea leaves says we're already past the interglacial plateau.

For the last three thousand years, Since 1000 BC, the end of the Minoan Warm Period, the global temperature trend has been -0.5 to -0.7 dgC per 1000 yrs, projecting full glacial of 8 dgC in another 7,000 yrs. Another clue, the obliquity dropped below 23.5 degrees around 1300 AD, the onset of the Wolf Minimum. So the Holocene Interglacial has been over for some time now. We are in the transition zone, expect Finoscandian ice sheets to start in 2000 yrs.

However, the solar output has been declining since 1986 and this accelerated in 2009 with solar cycle 24, the lowest in 200 yrs. Cycle 25 will also be low and the beginning of a Grand Solar Minimum, now named the Eddy Minimum. Expect a Little Ice Age lasting 40 yrs, with some winters extremely cold, some wet cool springs to kill crops, some cold summers. This slide into cold is showing up in German weather station records where the last 30 yrs of winter (DJF) are trending -19 dgC per 1000 yrs, much faster than the slow decline to normal glacials.

You've been warned. Take a sharpie and write your social security number or driver's license on the inside of your arm, heh. Stock up on hatchets and hunting knives to trade for food.

Sandy, Minister of Future
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